• v2: 2017 01

    Coming soon

  • v1: 2014 04

    Comparison vs. Honda Odyssey

    Assumptions and notes

    • I used 5% b/c that's what I learned in b-school and they still use 5%.
    • I live in California/Silicon Valley.  So gas and electricity is set accordingly.  Feel free to copy the model and plug in your own numbers.  I didn't take into account TOU rates or solar (I might add a solar tab later).  And while I charge most of the time at work for free, I assumed in this model that all of my charging was at home.
    • The price for the new Model S is for an S85 in blue metallic w/ obeche matte, tan leather, pano, supercharging, twin chargers, rear-facing seats, and parcel shelf.
    • As omgwtfbyobbq on TMC noted, all of these numbers - including NPV - should technically have a negative sign in front of them.  I was just lazy and got tired of typing in negative numbers everywhere.
    • Electricity is currently at 3 mi/kWh or 333 Wh/mi.  omgwtfbyobbq also noted that the draw from the wall might be higher.  I'll adjust it when I get a good number.  Feel free to suggest one.  Update: TMC folks suggest using EPA figures to account for wall draw.  More below.
    • Combined EPA ratings for Ody and Tesla.  I used the combined rating for the Ody and a lower-than-EPA rating for the Tesla to be conservative.
    • For Tesla residual, this McKinsey article is one reason for the $30K value in 2022 (forecasts $/kWh falling from $600 in 2012 to $200 in 2020, or $17K for an 85kWh battery).
    • And, as noted in the previous tab, because I was lazy and for other reasons, I left out insurance, and didn't try to quantify safety, HOV lane access, cargo space, and other features.
    • Here's a direct link to the spreadsheet if you want to make a copy and play around with stuff.

    Spreadsheet

  • Get free unlimited supercharging

    Click on the link below to activate my official Tesla referral code. Receive free unlimited supercharging when you buy a new Model S or Model X. Or, if you're ordering an inventory vehicle, provide this code to your Ownership Advisor: paul6598.

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